English

Can deleterious mutations surf deterministic population waves?

Analysis of PDEs 2026-07-14 v1 Probability Populations and Evolution

Abstract

In spatially structured populations, rare neutral mutations can spread through large regions during a range expansion, a phenomenon known as gene surfing. Whether deleterious mutations can also surf remains poorly understood. To address this question, we study a deterministic version of the spatial Muller's ratchet, given by an infinite system of reaction-diffusion equations describing an asexual population subject to mutation, migration, and density-dependent reproduction and death. After establishing that the system of PDEs is well-posed, we analyse the distribution of deleterious mutations within the population. In the monostable regime, we derive quantitative bounds on the ratio between the density of individuals carrying a given number of mutations and the density of mutation-free individuals. Under a Fisher-KPP condition, we further determine the spreading speed of the population into an empty habitat, confirming non-rigorous computations of Foutel-Rodier and Etheridge. Finally, using a tracer dynamics approach, we show that deleterious mutations cannot surf deterministic waves: although they are present at the expansion front, they only arise as recent descendants of the wild type.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.12864,
  title  = {Can deleterious mutations surf deterministic population waves?},
  author = {Joao Luiz de Oliveira Madeira and Marcel Ortgiese and Sarah Penington},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.12864},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

55 pages, 1 figure. This work was originally part of arXiv:2603.06478 and has been separated into a standalone manuscript