English

Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof

Theoretical Economics 2023-02-14 v2 Computer Science and Game Theory Machine Learning Machine Learning

Abstract

A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibrated forecasts by the minimax theorem, which moreover shows that N3N^3 periods suffice to guarantee a calibration error of at most 1/N1/N.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2209.05863,
  title  = {Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof},
  author = {Sergiu Hart},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.05863},
  year   = {2023}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T01:11:57.119Z