We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions.
@article{arxiv.2510.21959,
title = {Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work},
author = {Eduard Brüll and Samuel Mäurer and Davud Rostam-Afschar},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.21959},
year = {2025}
}