English

Belief revision in quantum decision theory: gambler's and hot hand fallacies

General Physics 2008-01-30 v1

Abstract

In the present article we introduce a quantum mechanism which is able to describe the creation of correlations in the evaluation of random independent events: such correlations, known as positive and negative recency, correspond respectively to the hot hand's and to the gambler's fallacies. Thus we propose a description of these effects in terms of qubits, which may become entangled, forming a system which can not be described completely only in terms of its constituents. We show that such formalism is able to describe and interpret the experimental results, thus providing a general and unifying framework for the cognitive heuristics.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0801.4472,
  title  = {Belief revision in quantum decision theory: gambler's and hot hand fallacies},
  author = {Riccardo Franco},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0801.4472},
  year   = {2008}
}