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BEACON: Bayesian Experimental design Acceleration with Conditional Normalizing flows $-$ a case study in optimal monitor well placement for CO$_2$ sequestration

Machine Learning 2024-04-02 v1 Mathematical Physics math.MP

Abstract

CO2_2 sequestration is a crucial engineering solution for mitigating climate change. However, the uncertain nature of reservoir properties, necessitates rigorous monitoring of CO2_2 plumes to prevent risks such as leakage, induced seismicity, or breaching licensed boundaries. To address this, project managers use borehole wells for direct CO2_2 and pressure monitoring at specific locations. Given the high costs associated with drilling, it is crucial to strategically place a limited number of wells to ensure maximally effective monitoring within budgetary constraints. Our approach for selecting well locations integrates fluid-flow solvers for forecasting plume trajectories with generative neural networks for plume inference uncertainty. Our methodology is extensible to three-dimensional domains and is developed within a Bayesian framework for optimal experimental design, ensuring scalability and mathematical optimality. We use a realistic case study to verify these claims by demonstrating our method's application in a large scale domain and optimal performance as compared to baseline well placement.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2404.00075,
  title  = {BEACON: Bayesian Experimental design Acceleration with Conditional Normalizing flows $-$ a case study in optimal monitor well placement for CO$_2$ sequestration},
  author = {Rafael Orozco and Abhinav Gahlot and Felix J. Herrmann},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2404.00075},
  year   = {2024}
}