Beach-level 24-hour forecasts of Florida red tide-induced respiratory irritation
Abstract
An accurate forecast of the red tide respiratory irritation level would improve the lives of many people living in areas affected by algal blooms. Using a decades-long database of daily beach conditions, two conceptually different models to forecast the respiratory irritation risk level one day ahead of time are trained. One model is wind-based, using the current days' respiratory level and the predicted wind direction of the following day. The other model is a probabilistic self-exciting Hawkes process model. Both models are trained on beaches in Florida during 2011-2017 and applied to the red tide bloom during 2018-2019. For beaches where there is enough historical data to develop a model, the model which performs best depends on the beach. The wind-based model is the most accurate at half the beaches, correctly predicting the respiratory risk level on average about 84% of the time. The Hawkes model is the most accurate (81% accuracy) at nearly all of the remaining beaches.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2105.11342,
title = {Beach-level 24-hour forecasts of Florida red tide-induced respiratory irritation},
author = {Shane D. Ross and Jeremie Fish and Klaus Moeltner and Erik M. Bollt and Landon Bilyeu and Tracy Fanara},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.11342},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
31 pages, 9 figures