English

Bayesian inference for multistate `step and turn' animal movement in continuous time

Applications 2017-05-19 v2

Abstract

Mechanistic modelling of animal movement is often formulated in discrete time despite problems with scale invariance, such as handling irregularly timed observations. A natural solution is to formulate in continuous time, yet uptake of this has been slow. This lack of implementation is often excused by a difficulty in interpretation. Here we aim to bolster usage by developing a continuous-time model with interpretable parameters, similar to those of popular discrete-time models that use turning angles and step lengths. Movement is defined by a joint bearing and speed process, with parameters dependent on a continuous-time behavioural switching process, creating a flexible class of movement models. Methodology is presented for Markov chain Monte Carlo inference given irregular observations, involving augmenting observed locations with a reconstruction of the underlying movement process. This is applied to well known GPS data from elk (\emph{Cervus elaphus}), which have previously been modelled in discrete time. We demonstrate the interpretable nature of the continuous-time model, finding clear differences in behaviour over time and insights into short term behaviour that could not have been obtained in discrete time.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1701.05736,
  title  = {Bayesian inference for multistate `step and turn' animal movement in continuous time},
  author = {Alison Parton and Paul G. Blackwell},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1701.05736},
  year   = {2017}
}

Comments

34 pages, 6 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-22T17:55:02.607Z