Bayesian analysis of nucleon-nucleon scattering data in pionless effective field theory

We perform Bayesian model calibration of two-nucleon ($NN$) low-energy constants (LECs) appearing in an $NN$ interaction based on pionless effective field theory (EFT). The calibration is carried out for potentials constructed using naive dimensional analysis in $NN$ relative momenta ($p$) up to next-to-leading order [NLO, $O(p^2)$] and next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order [N3LO, $O(p^4)$]. We consider two classes of pionless EFT potential: one that acts in all partial waves and another that is dominated by $s$-wave physics. The two classes produce broadly similar results for calibrations to $NN$ data up to $E_{\rm lab}=5$ MeV. Our analysis accounts for the correlated uncertainties that arise from the truncation of the pionless EFT. We simultaneously estimate both the EFT LECs and the parameters that quantify the truncation error. This permits the first quantitative estimates of the pionless EFT breakdown scale, $\Lambda_b$: the 95% intervals are $\Lambda_b \in [50.11,63.03]$ MeV at NLO and $\Lambda_b \in [72.27, 88.54]$ MeV at N3LO. Invoking naive dimensional analysis for the $NN$ potential, therefore, does not lead to consistent results across orders in pionless EFT. This exemplifies the possible use of Bayesian tools to identify inconsistencies in a proposed EFT power counting.