English

BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models

Computation and Language 2025-04-21 v1 Statistical Finance

Abstract

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2504.13189,
  title  = {BASIR: Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking -- A Dataset for Sector Identification and Performance Prediction Using Language Models},
  author = {Sohom Ghosh and Sudip Kumar Naskar},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.13189},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

The codes and the datasets can be accessed from https://huggingface.co/datasets/sohomghosh/BASIR_Budget_Assisted_Sectoral_Impact_Ranking/tree/main/