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Asymptotic analysis of ruin in CEV model

Probability 2009-05-25 v6

Abstract

We give asymptotic analysis for probability of absorbtion P(τ0T)\mathsf{P}(\tau_0\le T) on the interval [0,T][0,T], where τ0=inf{t:Xt=0} \tau_0=\inf\{t:X_t=0\} and XtX_t is a nonnegative diffusion process relative to Brownian motion BtB_t, dX_t&=\mu X_tdt+\sigma X^\gamma_tdB_t. X_0&=K>0 Diffusion parameter σxγ\sigma x^\gamma, γ[1/2,1)\gamma\in [{1/2},1) is not Lipschitz continuous and assures P(τ0>T)>0\mathsf{P}(\tau_0>T)>0. Our main result: limK1K2(1γ)logP(τ0T)=12\EMT2, \lim\limits_{K\to\infty} \frac{1}{K^{2(1-\gamma)}}\log\mathsf{P}(\tau_{0}\le T) =-\frac{1}{2\E M^2_T}, where MT=0Tσ(1γ)e(1γ)μsdBs M_T=\int_0^T\sigma(1-\gamma)e^{-(1-\gamma)\mu s}dB_s . Moreover we describe the most likely path to absorbtion of the normed process XtK\frac{X_t}{K} for KK\to\infty.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.math/0511116,
  title  = {Asymptotic analysis of ruin in CEV model},
  author = {F. Klebaner and R. Liptser},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0511116},
  year   = {2009}
}

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10 pages