English

Astrophysical Population Coordinates for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Pulsar Timing Array Inference

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena 2026-07-14 v1 Astrophysics of Galaxies

Abstract

Pulsar timing arrays can probe the population physics of supermassive black-hole binaries through the nanohertz gravitational-wave background. We construct a phenomenological forward model that follows source abundance, binary residence time, the high-mass population, finite-source strain moments, and the pulsar timing response. The simulated observables constrain three standardized population coordinates: β\beta, which controls the residence-time and spectral response; ϕeff\phi_{eff}, which describes source normalization after accounting for its covariance with β\beta; and meffm_{eff}, which is dominated by the high-mass cutoff. In the evaluation ensemble, the posterior-mean correlations with the simulated values are 0.9280.928, 0.9260.926, and 0.8840.884, with central 90 per cent coverages of 0.938±0.0150.938\pm0.015, 0.871±0.0210.871\pm0.021, and 0.898±0.0190.898\pm0.019, respectively. Frequency-resolved observables are most important for β\beta, and strain moments beyond a common-process power law provide sensitivity to the normalization and high-mass coordinates; the fourth strain moment identifies meffm_{eff} with rare, massive binaries. These coordinates quantify the relative sensitivity of the adopted PTA summaries within this population model, for which nearby population realizations retain substantial posterior overlap.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.12427,
  title  = {Astrophysical Population Coordinates for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Pulsar Timing Array Inference},
  author = {Yikun Li and Muhammad Ahmad and Shaoguang Guo and Lang Cui},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.12427},
  year   = {2026}
}