Are Hallucinations Bad Estimations?
Machine Learning
2025-09-29 v1 Artificial Intelligence
Computation and Language
Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
Machine Learning
Abstract
We formalize hallucinations in generative models as failures to link an estimate to any plausible cause. Under this interpretation, we show that even loss-minimizing optimal estimators still hallucinate. We confirm this with a general high probability lower bound on hallucinate rate for generic data distributions. This reframes hallucination as structural misalignment between loss minimization and human-acceptable outputs, and hence estimation errors induced by miscalibration. Experiments on coin aggregation, open-ended QA, and text-to-image support our theory.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2509.21473,
title = {Are Hallucinations Bad Estimations?},
author = {Hude Liu and Jerry Yao-Chieh Hu and Jennifer Yuntong Zhang and Zhao Song and Han Liu},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.21473},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
Code is available at https://github.com/MAGICS-LAB/hallucination