'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting
Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
2008-12-02 v4 Chaotic Dynamics
General Finance
Abstract
A two-variable model is developed to forecast the probability of recession in the U.S. economy. Like many others, the model uses data a year or more old to explain movements of a dichotomous dependent variable for recession. The innovation of the present effort is the introduction of a confidence variable, which appears to increase the qualitative accuracy and structural stability of the model in validation testing compared to others.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.nlin/0108012,
title = {'Animal spirits' and expectations in U.S. recession forecasting},
author = {Elliott Middleton},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:nlin/0108012},
year = {2008}
}
Comments
pdf, 10 pages, 4 figures, submitted for publication; v2,v3 format and citation details; v4 affiliation change