An Exact System Optimum Assignment Model for Transit Demand Management

Mass transit systems are experiencing increasing congestion in many cities. The schedule-based transit assignment problem (STAP) involves a joint choice model for departure times and routes, defining a space-time path in which passengers decide when to depart and which route to take. User equilibrium (UE) models for the STAP indicates the current congestion cost, while a system optimum (SO) models can provide insights for congestion relief directions. However, current STAP methods rely on approximate SO (Approx. SO) models, which underestimate the potential for congestion reduction in the system. The few studies in STAP that compute exact SO solutions ignore realistic constraints such as hard capacity, multi-line networks, or spatial-temporal competing demand flows. The paper proposes an exact SO method for the STAP that overcomes these limitations. We apply our approach to a case study involving part of the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway network, which includes 5 lines, 12 interacting origin-destination pairs and 52,717 passengers. Computing an Approx. SO solution for this system indicates a modest potential for congestion reduction measures, with a cost reduction of 17.39% from the UE solution. Our exact SO solution is 36.35% lower than the UE solution, which is more than double the potential for congestion reduction. We then show how the exact SO solution can be used to identify opportunities for congestion reduction: (i) which origin-destination pairs have the most potential to reduce congestion; (ii) how many passengers can be reasonably shifted; (iii) future system potential with increasing demand and expanding network capacity.