An Enumerative Approach to $P=W$

The $P = W$ conjecture identifies the perverse filtration of the Hitchin system on the cohomology of the moduli space of Higgs bundles with the weight filtration of the corresponding character variety. In this paper, we introduce an enumerative approach to to this problem; our technique only uses the structure of the equivariant intersection numbers on the moduli space of Higgs bundles, and little information about the topology of the Hitchin map. In the rank $2$ case, starting from the known intersection numbers of the moduli of stable bundles, we derive the equivariant intersection numbers on the Higgs moduli, and then verify the top perversity part of our enumerative $P = W$ statement for even tautological classes. A key in this calculation is the existence of polynomial solutions to the Discrete Heat Equation satisfying particular vanishing properties. For odd classes, we derive a determinantal criterion for the enumerative $P = W$.