Metapopulation (multipatch) models are widely used to study the patterns of spatial spread of epidemics. In this paper we study the impact of inter-patch connection weights on the predictions of these models. We contrast arbitrary, uniform link weights with link weights predicted using a gravity model based on patch populations and distance. In a synthetic system with one large driver city and many small follower cities, we show that under uniform link weights, epidemics in the follower regions are perfectly synchronized. In contrast, gravity-based links allow a more realistic, less synchronized distribution of epidemic peaks in the follower regions. We then fit a three-patch metapopulation model to regional dengue fever data from Peru -- a country experiencing yearly, spatially defined epidemics. We use data for 2002-2008 (studying the seasonal disease patterns in the country and the yearly reinfection patterns from jungle to the coast) and 2000-2001 (one large epidemic of a new disease strain across the country). We present numerical results.
@article{arxiv.1308.4589,
title = {A study of gravity-linked metapopulation models for the spatial spread of dengue fever},
author = {Marta Sarzynska and Oyita Udiani and Na Zhang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1308.4589},
year = {2013}
}