A Social Dynamical System for Twitter Analysis

Understanding the evolution of public opinion is crucial for informed decision-making in various domains, particularly public affairs. The rapid growth of social networks, such as Twitter (now rebranded as X), provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze public opinion at scale without relying on traditional surveys. With the rise of deep learning, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in modeling online opinion dynamics. Notably, classical opinion dynamics models, such as DeGroot, can be reformulated within a GNN framework. We introduce Latent Social Dynamical System (LSDS), a novel framework for modeling the latent dynamics of social media users' opinions based on textual content. Since expressed opinions may not fully reflect underlying beliefs, LSDS first encodes post content into latent representations. It then leverages a GraphODE framework, using a GNN-based ODE function to predict future opinions. A decoder subsequently utilizes these predicted latent opinions to perform downstream tasks, such as interaction prediction, which serve as benchmarks for model evaluation. Our framework is highly flexible, supporting various opinion dynamic models as ODE functions, provided they can be adapted into a GNN-based form. It also accommodates different encoder architectures and is compatible with diverse downstream tasks. To validate our approach, we constructed dynamic datasets from Twitter data. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of LSDS, highlighting its potential for future applications. We plan to publicly release our dataset and code upon the publication of this paper.