A phase transition between the niche and neutral regimes in ecology

An ongoing debate in ecology concerns the impacts of ecological drift and selection on community assembly. Here, we show that there is a sharp phase transition in diverse ecological communities between a selection dominated regime (the niche phase) and a drift dominated regime (the neutral phase). Simulations and analytic arguments show that the niche phase is favored in communities with large population sizes and relatively constant environments, whereas the neutral phase is favored in communities with small population sizes and fluctuating environments. Our results demonstrate how apparently neutral populations may arise even in communities inhabited by species with varying traits.