English

A note on p-values interpreted as plausibilities

Statistics Theory 2014-10-28 v4 Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

P-values are a mainstay in statistics but are often misinterpreted. We propose a new interpretation of p-value as a meaningful plausibility, where this is to be interpreted formally within the inferential model framework. We show that, for most practical hypothesis testing problems, there exists an inferential model such that the corresponding plausibility function, evaluated at the null hypothesis, is exactly the p-value. The advantages of this representation are that the notion of plausibility is consistent with the way practitioners use and interpret p-values, and the plausibility calculation avoids the troublesome conditioning on the truthfulness of the null. This connection with plausibilities also reveals a shortcoming of standard p-values in problems with non-trivial parameter constraints.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1211.1547,
  title  = {A note on p-values interpreted as plausibilities},
  author = {Ryan Martin and Chuanhai Liu},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1211.1547},
  year   = {2014}
}

Comments

13 pages, 1 figure

R2 v1 2026-06-21T22:34:19.346Z