A Joint Analysis of Sensitivity to Anticipation and Parallel Trends Violations
Econometrics
2026-03-03 v1
Abstract
Two key identifying assumptions used to justify difference-in-differences are parallel trends and no anticipation, yet both may fail in practice. I propose a class of assumptions on anticipation and derive closed-form, sharp bounds on the average treatment effect on the treated while simultaneously relaxing parallel trends. Deviations from both assumptions are jointly disciplined using observed pre-trends. When some anticipation is imposed, the identified set under joint deviations can be shorter than under parallel trends violations alone. These bounds inform a sensitivity analysis assessing the robustness of qualitative conclusions to anticipation and parallel trends violations. I illustrate with an empirical application.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.00868,
title = {A Joint Analysis of Sensitivity to Anticipation and Parallel Trends Violations},
author = {Gianna Fenaroli},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.00868},
year = {2026}
}