English

A finite-sample Borel--Cantelli inequality under $m$-dependence

Probability 2026-04-10 v1

Abstract

We prove an explicit finite-sample version of the Borel--Cantelli lemma under mm-dependence. Given any mm-dependent sequence of events (Ak)1kN(A_k)_{1\leq k\leq N}, we show that P(k=1NAk)1exp(1m+1k=1NP(Ak)). \mathbb{P}\Bigl(\bigcup_{k=1}^N A_k\Bigr) \ge 1 - \exp\Bigl(-\frac{1}{m+1} \sum_{k=1}^{N} \mathbb{P}(A_k)\Bigr). The proof splits the index set into residue classes modulo m+1m+1, so that each class consists of mutually independent events, and then applies an elementary product--to--exponential bound. We further derive a quantitative windowed corollary: if the partial sums satisfy k=1ϕ(n)P(Ak)n\sum_{k=1}^{\phi(n)}\mathbb{P}(A_k)\ge n for all n1n\ge1, then for every N1N\ge1 and i0i\ge0, P(k=i+1ϕ(i+N)Ak)1exp(Nm+1). \mathbb{P}\Bigl(\bigcup_{k=i+1}^{\phi(i+N)} A_k\Bigr) \ge 1-\exp\Bigl(-\frac{N}{m+1}\Bigr). Finally, we present a complementary second-order refinement involving local pairwise intersection probabilities. These results complement the asymptotic and rate results of Lu, Shi and Zhao (2026) by providing explicit finite-NN bounds and a simple comparison framework for the baseline and second-order estimates.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.07750,
  title  = {A finite-sample Borel--Cantelli inequality under $m$-dependence},
  author = {Chatchawan Panraksa},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.07750},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

8 pages

R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:00:27.333Z