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A distribution-free valid p-value for finite samples of bounded random variables

Machine Learning 2024-05-16 v1 Machine Learning Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We build a valid p-value based on a concentration inequality for bounded random variables introduced by Pelekis, Ramon and Wang. The motivation behind this work is the calibration of predictive algorithms in a distribution-free setting. The super-uniform p-value is tighter than Hoeffding and Bentkus alternatives in certain regions. Even though we are motivated by a calibration setting in a machine learning context, the ideas presented in this work are also relevant in classical statistical inference. Furthermore, we compare the power of a collection of valid p- values for bounded losses, which are presented in previous literature.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2405.08975,
  title  = {A distribution-free valid p-value for finite samples of bounded random variables},
  author = {Joaquin Alvarez},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.08975},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

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R2 v1 2026-06-28T16:27:35.707Z