English

A definition of conditional probability distribution with non-stochastic information

Probability 2011-02-18 v1

Abstract

The current definition of a conditional probability distribution enables one to update probabilities only on the basis of stochastic information. This paper provides a definition for conditional probability distributions with non-stochastic information. The definition is derived as a solution of a decision theoretic problem, where the information is connected to the outcome of interest via a loss function. We shall show that the Kullback-Leibler divergence plays a central role. Some illustrations are presented.

Cite

@article{arxiv.1102.3681,
  title  = {A definition of conditional probability distribution with non-stochastic information},
  author = {Pier Giovanni Bissiri and Stephen G. Walker},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1102.3681},
  year   = {2011}
}

Comments

16 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-21T17:28:06.392Z