Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet in our galaxy. Interior structure models suggest that the coldest sub-Neptunes could host liquid water oceans underneath their hydrogen envelopes -- sometimes called ``hycean'' planets. JWST transmission spectra of the ∼ 250 K sub-Neptune K2-18 b were recently used to report detections of CH4 and CO2, alongside weaker evidence of (CH3)2S (dimethyl sulfide, or DMS). Atmospheric CO2 was interpreted as evidence for a liquid water ocean, while DMS was highlighted as a potential biomarker. However, these notable claims were derived using a single data reduction and retrieval modeling framework, which did not allow for standard robustness tests. Here we present a comprehensive reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSpec G395H transmission spectra, including the first analysis of the second-order NIRISS SOSS data. We incorporate multiple well-tested data reduction pipelines and retrieval codes, spanning 60 different data treatments and over 250 atmospheric retrievals. We confirm the detection of CH4 (≈4σ), with a volume mixing ratio range −2.14≤log10CH4≤−0.53, but we find no statistically significant or reliable evidence for CO2 or DMS. Finally, we assess the retrieved atmospheric composition using photochemical-climate and interior models, demonstrating that our revised composition of K2-18\,b can be explained by an oxygen-poor mini-Neptune without requiring a liquid water surface or life.
@article{arxiv.2501.18477,
title = {A Comprehensive Reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec Transmission Spectrum},
author = {Stephen P. Schmidt and Ryan J. MacDonald and Shang-Min Tsai and Michael Radica and Le-Chris Wang and Eva-Maria Ahrer and Taylor J. Bell and Chloe Fisher and Daniel P. Thorngren and Nicholas Wogan and Erin M. May and Piero Ferrari and Katherine A. Bennett and Zafar Rustamkulov and Mercedes López-Morales and David K. Sing},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.18477},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
42 pages, 21 figures. Revised version; accepted to AJ