English

A COMPASS to Model Comparison and Simulation-Based Inference in Galactic Chemical Evolution

Astrophysics of Galaxies 2025-07-09 v2 Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Machine Learning Computational Physics Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Abstract

We present COMPASS, a novel simulation-based inference framework that combines score-based diffusion models with transformer architectures to jointly perform parameter estimation and Bayesian model comparison across competing Galactic Chemical Evolution (GCE) models. COMPASS handles high-dimensional, incomplete, and variable-size stellar abundance datasets. Applied to high-precision elemental abundance measurements, COMPASS evaluates 40 combinations of nucleosynthetic yield tables. The model strongly favours Asymptotic Giant Branch yields from NuGrid and core-collapse SN yields used in the IllustrisTNG simulation, achieving near-unity cumulative posterior probability. Using the preferred model, we infer a steep high-mass IMF slope and an elevated Supernova Ia normalization, consistent with prior solar neighbourhood studies but now derived from fully amortized Bayesian inference. Our results demonstrate that modern SBI methods can robustly constrain uncertain physics in astrophysical simulators and enable principled model selection when analysing complex, simulation-based data.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.05060,
  title  = {A COMPASS to Model Comparison and Simulation-Based Inference in Galactic Chemical Evolution},
  author = {Berkay Gunes and Sven Buder and Tobias Buck},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.05060},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Accepted at the 2025 Workshop on Machine Learning for Astrophysics

R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:49:36.252Z