English

A Causal Markov Condition for Value

Machine Learning 2026-07-18 v1 Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning

Abstract

This paper proposes a causal independence principle for value -- the value Causal Markov Condition (v-CMC) -- and develops the conceptual and mathematical foundations of a "causal value theory" linking causality and utility. After motivating a local formulation of the v-CMC, we introduce a probability-value duality that translates standard causal-inference results into the value setting. In particular, we formulate local, global, and decomposition versions of the v-CMC and prove their equivalence. We also define v-separation and show that it is sound and complete for conditional value independence. Furthermore, we derive a Bellman-type recursion as a special case of the v-CMC, thereby generalizing standard Bellman recursion from linear chains to causal DAGs. Finally, we show how the v-CMC supports modular transfer and updating of utility information across causal contexts and develop algorithms for causally structured utility elicitation and canonical influence-diagram construction.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2607.16717,
  title  = {A Causal Markov Condition for Value},
  author = {Olav Benjamin Vassend},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.16717},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Accepted at UAI 2026