Homemath.PRarXiv:2605.30055

The Wasserstein cost of Importance Sampling

math.PRmath.FAmath.STstat.TH2026-05v1license

Abstract

Importance sampling (IS) consists in biasing samples from a distribution ff towards another distribution gg. Concretely, given samples XiX_i from ff, the IS measure is g^n=1Zni=1ng(Xi)f(Xi)δXi,\hat{g}_n = \frac{1}{Z_n}\sum_{i=1}^n \frac{g(X_i)}{f(X_i)} \delta_{X_i}, with Zn=i=1ng(Xi)f(Xi)Z_n = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{g(X_i)}{f(X_i)}. The random measure g^n\hat{g}_n approximates gg, and is used in many contexts ranging from Monte Carlo integration to Bayesian inference. We show that, in high dimension (d3d \geqslant 3), the Wasserstein cost Wpp(g^n,g)W_p^p(\hat{g}_n, g) has order np/dn^{-p/d} in expectation, i.e. βp,dlowgfp/dlim infnnp/dE[Wpp(g^n,g)]lim supnnp/dE[Wpp(g^n,g)]βp,dgfp/d\beta^{\mathrm{low}}_{p,d}\int gf^{-p/d}\leqslant \liminf_{n \to \infty} n^{p/d} \mathbb{E}[W_p^p(\hat{g}_n, g)] \leqslant \limsup_{n \to \infty} n^{p/d} \mathbb{E}[W_p^p(\hat{g}_n, g)] \leqslant\beta_{p,d} \int g f^{-p/d} where 0<βp,dlowβp,d0<\beta^{\mathrm{low}}_{p,d}\leqslant \beta_{p,d} are constants depending only on pp and dd, which are equal for p=2p=2 and conjectured to be equal for any p1p\geqslant 1. Our results are valid for all p1p\geqslant 1 and d3d\geqslant 3. In the case where βp,dlow=βp,d\beta^{\mathrm{low}}_{p,d} = \beta_{p,d}, we show that the asymptotically optimal sampling distribution ff^* for importance sampling is not equal to gg but to a tempered version of gg, namely fgd/(p+d)f^* \propto g^{d/(p+d)}, which is reminiscent of Zador's theorem in the domain of measure quantization.

Comments: 20 pages

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.30055,
  title  = {The Wasserstein cost of Importance Sampling},
  author = {Simon Coste and Michael Goldman},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.30055},
  year   = {2026}
}