The Wasserstein cost of Importance Sampling
Authors: Simon Coste, Michael Goldman
math.PRmath.FAmath.STstat.TH2026-05v1license
Abstract
Importance sampling (IS) consists in biasing samples from a distribution f towards another distribution g. Concretely, given samples Xi from f, the IS measure is g^n=Zn1i=1∑nf(Xi)g(Xi)δXi, with Zn=∑i=1nf(Xi)g(Xi). The random measure g^n approximates g, and is used in many contexts ranging from Monte Carlo integration to Bayesian inference. We show that, in high dimension (d⩾3), the Wasserstein cost Wpp(g^n,g) has order n−p/d in expectation, i.e. βp,dlow∫gf−p/d⩽n→∞liminfnp/dE[Wpp(g^n,g)]⩽n→∞limsupnp/dE[Wpp(g^n,g)]⩽βp,d∫gf−p/d where 0<βp,dlow⩽βp,d are constants depending only on p and d, which are equal for p=2 and conjectured to be equal for any p⩾1. Our results are valid for all p⩾1 and d⩾3. In the case where βp,dlow=βp,d, we show that the asymptotically optimal sampling distribution f∗ for importance sampling is not equal to g but to a tempered version of g, namely f∗∝gd/(p+d), which is reminiscent of Zador's theorem in the domain of measure quantization.
Comments: 20 pages
Cite
@article{arxiv.2605.30055,
title = {The Wasserstein cost of Importance Sampling},
author = {Simon Coste and Michael Goldman},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.30055},
year = {2026}
}