Homeastro-ph.HEarXiv:2605.29382

A Note on QPE Timing: False Alarms in O-C

astro-ph.HE2026-05v1license

Abstract

O-C timing analysis is a useful diagnostic tool for quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), but their interpretation depends sensitively on the integer cycle number assigned to each eruption. In this note, we show that even a small mismatch in the cycle number, NcycN_{\rm cyc}, can produce large false signals in O-C diagrams, and \emph{a universal feature of these false signals is a large in-phase sinusoidal modulation between even and odd eruptions.} Therefore, uncertainties in NcycN_{\rm cyc} must be inferred or marginalized over before physical interpretations are attached to O-C. We then apply both O-C and EMRI+disk to GSN 069 and eRO-QPE2. For GSN 069, the timing data favor an anti-phase modulation in even and odd eruptions, consistent with apsidal precession in a low-eccetricity EMRI crossing an equatorial disk. For eRO-QPE2, the data are well described by a near-circular EMRI and a precessing disk.

Comments: 15 pages, 11 figures

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.29382,
  title  = {A Note on QPE Timing: False Alarms in O-C},
  author = {Cong Zhou and Zirui Zhang and Zhen Pan and Wen Zhao},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.29382},
  year   = {2026}
}